Edifício Ventura Oeste – Av. Chile 300, salas 901-903 – Rio de Janeiro
“Global economic conditions continue to have a strong bearing on production, trade and investment in developing economies (DEs). In this respect the current landscape is not very encouraging. After three years of recovery the world economy still remains highly fragile. The short-term outlook is for contraction in several advanced economies (AEs) in Europe. Growth in others, including the US, is weak and erratic. But more importantly, medium term prospects are bleak almost everywhere.”
“There is considerable uncertainty in global financial markets. While growing public deficits and debt are an ongoing source of economic stress in several major AEs, currently the Achilles Heel of the international economy is the eurozone (EZ). Consequently, the way the EZ crisis is handled is a major concern for DEs.”
“At a first glance, the recent record looks very promising for DEs. During 2003-08, the average growth of DEs exceeded that of advanced economies (AEs) by some 5 percentage points, compared to around one point in the 1980s and 1990s. The difference widened during 2008-11 as most DEs proved resilient to the crisis while AEs collapsed.”
“This growth divergence has widely been interpreted as the South “decoupling” from the North. However, the evidence does not show the desynchronisation of cycles between DEs and AEs, and deviations of economic activity from underlying trends continue to be highly correlated. The more significant question is whether there has been a durable shift in the trend growth of the South relative to the North. A closer look suggests that the growth surge in DEs owes more to exceptionally favourable international economic conditions than improvements in their underlying fundamentals.
” The International Seminar - The State of the World Economy - BNDES June 20 afternoon, aims to discuss the Document “The Staggering Rise of the South”, by the South Centre Chief Economist Yilmaz Akyuz, and the different scenarios for the evolving Global Crisis for the BRICS economies, with special emphasis on Brazil.
THE STAGGERING RISE OF THE SOUTH?
– Yılmaz Akyüz
THE BRAZILIAN SCENARIO – Carlos Frederico Leão Rocha
COMMENTS ON “THE STAGGERING RISE OF THE SOUTH” BY YILMAZ AKYÜZ – Vanessa Petrelli Corrêa
POLÍTICAS INOVADORAS PARA O INVESTIMENTO RESPONSÁVEL – Natura Cosmeticos SA – Sergio Talocchil
COMMENTS ON YILMAZ AKYÜR’ PAPER ON “THE STAGGERING RISE OF THE SOUTH” – Ricardo Bielschowsky, IE-UFRJ